AMD Reportedly Books 5nm and 3nm Capacity with TSMC for 2022, 2023

1 : Anonymous2021/05/31 11:19 ID: np12aq
AMD Reportedly Books 5nm and 3nm Capacity with TSMC for 2022, 2023
2 : Anonymous2021/05/31 14:09 ID: h030jbf

I refuse to believe that they will launch a 3nm processor in 2023. Is that node even ready?

ID: h031cen

Yes. Just depends on the die. Apple will use 3nm in 2022

ID: h031loc

Oh, is that so? My dislike to Nvidia and Intel made me like AMD over the years, but I must admit, the ARM market is starting to impress me.

ID: h042sdj

AMD was using 7nm in 2018 and 5nm came out last year, 3nm for 2023 is completly possible.

ID: h039ysx

The node is ready for 2023, if used on cpus like zen, where the chiplets are relatively small, its completely possible for a 2023 or q1 2024 product

ID: h0360ft

You're right. The numbers are marketing terms. We aren't even at 11nm yet, let alone 7nm. The world is a lie.

They call it the 7nm process. Key word process. I don't know what it means other than the fabrication (fitting word) of the chip itself, but it certainly isn't an actual chip with 7nm gates in it.

Intel isn't actually that far behind when it comes to nm's, but marketing would have you believe otherwise. Supposedly the nm number hasn't been real since back at 22nm or so.

And I'm not hating on AMD, rather all of them that have decided to do this. I'm still happy with my 5800x, but I definitely had a fair bit of hype due to the misunderstanding.

ID: h049741

Supposedly the nm number hasn't been real since back at 22nm or so.

Longer than that. The actual gate length in nm hasn't matched the node name since the 350nm node, around 1995.

ID: h03bd91

I don't get the downvotes on your comments, so I provide some sources:

The term "3 nanometer" has no relation to any actual physical feature (such as gate length, metal pitch or gate pitch) of the transistors. It is a commercial or marketing term used by the chip fabrication industry to refer to a new, improved generation of silicon semiconductor chips in terms of increased transistor density, increased speed and reduced power consumption. For example, TSMC has stated that its 3nm FinFET chips will reduce power consumption by 25 to 30 percent at the same speed, increase speed by 10 to 15 percent at the same amount power and increase transistor density by about 33 percent compared to its previous 5nm FinFET chips.

Same thing for 7nm and 5nm. So yes, there are improvements for sure in terms of power consumption and stuff like that, but not on the physical features.

ID: h04g203

I appreciate the approach of RedGamingTech: pronouncing "7nm" as "seven en-em".

ID: h04mrvq

FWIW Node side has always referred to the smallest feature being resolved consistently by the lithography/optics. It's just that for a long time there was a correlation between that resolution and the size of the gate in old big device planar designs.

But with things like FinFet et al, transistors look very different. The chasm between node and transistor goes back to the early 00s. After 130/90nm specially.

It's bizarre how so many people all of the sudden talk about node size/process name. When they are metrics that have zero bearing unless they are part of the design teams. Besides fab processes are defined by huge data sheets with tons of metrics and parameters, the size of the process resolution just being used for naming/marketing purposes.

Also, smallest transistor size doesn't tell us much. Because not all of the transistors in the design are of the same size.

And you are right, people don't realize that density wise Intel's 10nm is not that far behind TSCM's 7nm. Both end up producing the same amount of dies per wafer for the same design. This is, even though TSMC's process has slightly better lithographic resolution, in the end it doesn't produce transistors that are significantly smaller than Intel's "larger" node process.

ID: h06i3rr

It on track for 2023 man tsmc is doing and have been doing magic for years now there last fuck up was 20nm since then they have delivered on every word and promise

ID: h04yrgl

It depends what is called 3nm. It is already time to adopt some of the suggestions to use other combined metrics to compare nodes.

ID: h054esj

TSMC 3nm is going into risk production this year, with mass production in 2022, both with Apple.

5nm GPUs (RDNA 3) are scheduled to be released by the end of 2021, and 5nm CPUs (Zen 4) should be out in 2022.

ID: h05b3se

It's very likely that AMD will release a 3nm CDNA GPU in 2023. We might see 5nm CDNA announced soon...

ID: h04elfp

Well a silicon atom is 0.21nm wide. Meaning a 3nm node would be 14 atoms wide. That sounds pretty hard to produce at mass market levels. My crappy 9900k is only 14nm (66.6 silicon atoms worth of width and coincidently also the number of the beast according to the bible and iron maiden) and also here's a picture of intel 14nm and amd 7nm side by side to compare the chips intel makes against the chips that tsmc makes on behalf of amd. Looks to me like the nm process advertisements aren't as scientifically objective as some people believe.

ID: h04rq3p

Fab nanometers is more marketing than a real measure, they aren't technically that size.

3 : Anonymous2021/05/31 12:59 ID: h02tbbr

I can believe 5 nm for 2022, but 3 nm is probably 2024 or even 2025

ID: h02tyfo

If AMD decided they want to compete with the new Mac laptop stuff/M1 they would need to pay up to get on an equal node, so is maybe possible.

When it was only mobiles and tablets AMD probably didn't care, but maybe they will want to beat the macbook when it comes to the newest mobile parts.

ID: h02u5bz

The M1 is a 5 nm chip? I had no idea, honestly.

ID: h03y644

I don’t think M1 is their prime target. Far from it really.Expensive node usage makes sense for the products with the highest margin and that’s EPYC. If they make a GPU out of it it will be some instinct model.

ID: h033b5v

If AMD decided they want to compete with the new Mac laptop stuff/M1 they would need to pay up to get on an equal node, so is maybe possible.

No it's not. AMD barely shows signs of wanting to take laptops seriously as is, and you think they're going to pay out the nose to get 3nm while it's still new? There's absolutely no reason to think they'd go that aggressive.

Nor would I imagine that AMD considers Apple to be their main competitor, when Intel is still absolutely dominating the Windows laptop market.

ID: h0310gc

huh ? 5nm is already in mass production for apple A15.

N3 is supposed to be ready later next year.

ID: h038mny

Honestly I had no idea, I thought Apple was on 7 nm as well and that 5 nm was only getting tested now

ID: h02v6wq


ID: h03raev

3nm is a bit of misnomer. But TSMC does make a new node for Apple every year without fail, because Apple pays generously for innovation. Apple was on N5 last year, there's nothing magical about TSMC getting N3 ready by 23.

4 : Anonymous2021/05/31 13:46 ID: h02y1w7

Why dont they book 3nm for 2022. Apple comes 2022 with 3nm and the M2 Chip 🙂

ID: h0340ui

Apple can afford to do so, AMD cannot.

It's that simple.

ID: h038opd

Let's apple take the risk and the lower yields as well

5 : Anonymous2021/05/31 11:43 ID: h02mv6l

no 2021?

Apple, you need to chill the fuck out man!

ID: h031ly1

Apple took a huge risk in August last year and bought a TON of capacity when everyone was backing out of orders.

ID: h033jkf

It might surprise you to learn that it's already 2021. All orders would have been put in for this year at TSMC. Lead times for this stuff needs to be handled well in advance or you're gonna be fuck out of luck.

ID: h03ejv5

What's that got anything to do with Apple? TSMC's 5nm revenue dropped from 20% in Q4 2020 to only 14% Q1 2021, accounted for overall growth, that's a 29% drop in revenue. Either TSMC dropped price by 29% in one quarter to near 7nm level therefore gross margin also would drop - which didn't happen or production dropped by about 25%.

TSMC is doubling 5nm production in Q3 and full year expectation on 5nm is only 20%. Let me remind you, that's Q4 2020 level and without the doubled capacity. Obviously TSMC isn't expecting 5nm capacity to be fully utilised, depending on exactly when the next line is coming online - I'm gonna guess late June, early July - TSMC is only expecting 70-80% utilisation.

6 : Anonymous2021/05/31 12:10 ID: h02oxvn

and by the time this happens intel will still be stuck at 10nm for like the next 10 years and that'll eventually be their new 14nm

ID: h02ud7k

Let's hope this doesn't happen

Competition is what drives prices down

ID: h03gxav

I would prefer if Intel learned to be humble first. They need to feel truly threatened for their life before things turn around.

ID: h033thw

Man, just the most base, cynical comments will get upvoted here, eh?

Intel will also be using TSMC, by the way.

ID: h034fhg

Yeah, I was in negative votes mentioning that Intel's 10nm is practically TSMCs 7nm

ID: h03nsdt

Isn't Intel moving some production to TSMC? I have a feeling that their own manufacturing is eventually just going to be used for cheap processors, and they'll use TSMC in areas where they really need to compete.

Similar to how AMD has moved away from Global Foundries.

ID: h05suei

It's the opposite.

They are contracting TSMC capacity for low end stuff like the i3. I think they are also doing their customer GPUs on TSMC.

Their enterprise and high end consumer stuff is still going to be on their own fabs for the foreseeable future.

Intel is also expanding aggressively to get process parity by next year. The past 2 years have been a total anomaly for all the players in the semi sector.

ID: h02w2l6

Intel's 10nm is good as TSMC 7nm, I don't know exact reason something technically out of my scope

ID: h02wndh

not in efficiency

7 : Anonymous2021/05/31 21:59 ID: h04ktxk

It's important to remember that terms like 7nm don't refer to any actual sizes or measurements.

Derbauer has an awesome video where he took electron microscope pictures in Intel and AMD cpus to compare sizes. This image taken from the video shows them to scale. The widths of the dark parts (transistor gates) are 24 and 21.4 nm respectively for intel and AMD.

I recommend watching the whole video if you want to learn more. He does a great job describing what everything means (or doesn't mean).

8 : Anonymous2021/05/31 15:15 ID: h03851x

Honestly, I was under the impression that 3nm was not even achieved yet and that 5 nm was in a sort of early prototyping stage until like an hour ago.

Early prototype like having full production from last year November. 3NM is currently into the early testing phase for the M2 ( or whatever Apple is going to call the 3nm version ).

AMD is not going to beat Apple to a node because Apple throws billions around like its candy for the node advantage. It was Apple that invested a LOT of money into TSMC for 7nm ( and 5/3nm). Its also the reason the iphone's had 7nm SOC's before all the rest.

You can have AMD thank Apple for 7nm because it was more of a "taking over Apple leftover, as Apple moved to 5nm", combined with 7nm ramp up's in the past.

Apple tends to get a minimum a year node advantage vs the competitors for their investments. Apple has ( around Dec 2020 ) already reserved like 90% all the 3nm production for fall 2021 and entire 2022.

This is why your not going to see full 3nm production for AMD until at minimum 2023. Its the same reason why AMD is only looking at starting production for 5nm in fall 2021. Its because Apple is vacating ( part of their ) 5nm production, as they move to 3nm, combined with 5nm ramping up for the more mass sales.

In Short:

Apple 2020: 5nm Apple 2021: 5nm, moving part production to 3nm Apple 2022: 3nm, moving out of 5nm completely. Moving to 2nm end of the year?

Apple 2023: 2nm?

AMD 2020: 7nm

AMD 2021: 7nm, moving part production to 5nm

AMD 2022: 5nm, moving out of 7nm partially. Moving part production to 3nm?

AMD 2023: 3nm completely?

Note: this does not apply to the console chips that AMD makes. Those can stay on 7nm for much longer and will probably use 5nm when its not a new node anymore for AMD ( aka cheaper for MS/Sony to buy into as a console refresh ). This roadmap is mostly about AMD CPU's vs Apple CPU's.

Notice the timeline and TSMC's FAB in the US / node...

The problem for AMD is that they need more volume space compared to Apple, as AMD has much more products spread over a node. So Apple can enjoy node advantages with smaller production but AMD has the issue if TSMC does not ramp up mass production of a node, AMD is stuck only selling part of their product lines on a new node.

I said it before, AMD is too much linked to TSMC simply because of their volume and one company providing that volume. If anything goes wrong ( like delays ) with that new fab in the US, AMD can be stuck selling 5nm for longer then they planned, giving Intel openings. AKa, they can face the same issue that Intel faced.

Its the same reason why Apple is not going to sell the M1/M2/... chips outside their own product stack, as that means they need much more volume and that will limit them ( let alone contractual issues if they can not provide ). Their is simply no incentive to sell their Mx's outside their own brand products.

ID: h0472sk

• Apple 2020: 5nm • Apple 2021: 5nm, moving part production to 3nm • Apple 2022: 3nm, moving out of 5nm completely. Moving to 2nm end of the year? • Apple 2023: 2nm?

Where did you get all this information?

N3 is due in 2H22. There might be some risk production in 2021 but it’s certainly not for high volume manufacturing.

And 2nm in 2022? They don’t even have an ETA announced and you think we will see hvm in 2 years? Even 2023 is unlikely for 2nm given that we will only first see hvm for 3nm in 2H22.

Apple tends to get a minimum a year node advantage vs the competitors for their investments. Apple has ( around Dec 2020 ) already reserved like 90% all the 3nm production for fall 2021 and entire 2022.

Interesting thing to say given that TSMC’s CEO said in April 2021 that they are targeting 3nm volume production in 2H22.

Please check your facts.


9 : Anonymous2021/06/01 02:58 ID: h05hqr8

What makes smaller chip sizes possible? Like why was 7nm impossible 5 years ago but now there’s sizes smaller than that like 5nm?

ID: h05x6a0

you have to be able to etch the silicon in finer and finer detail, imagine like a sharper camera lens and higher resolution sensor. The only problem is that the distances are now so small that the laser wavelength is larger than the details it need to etch, so it is very inconsistent. TSMC’s latest machine (not sure if 7nm or 5nm) do create a short-wave radiation by blasting a tin particle into plasma.

here is a wonderful documentary that will get you up to speed on everything related.

ID: h05xgt3

Wow I never even realized they use lasers and plasma for that level of precision. That’s crazy!

10 : Anonymous2021/05/31 12:22 ID: h02pyfg

Oh snap!

11 : Anonymous2021/05/31 14:25 ID: h032a6e

Intel reportedly books 10nm capacity in 2040 just in time for its new government subsidized fab in Arizona.

ID: h034ckv

Intel doesn't book capacity at its own fabs. :/

Jokes are supposed to be like, at least *somewhat* clever.

And you're dreaming if you think TSMC isn't looking for gov't subsidies to build in the US.


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