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Here's the link.
Previous post was removed for linking directly to old content.
One thing that should be noted is when it mentions 3D it means stereoscopic 3D like Avatar and the 3DS.
How well do you think the predictions hold up? Obviously some are completely off, like how 2D gaming will become "retro", but are there any that you think did come true?
It mentions VR Goggles and gaming experiences becoming more and more connected.
What predictions do you have for the next 10 years of gaming?
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"Single player will end" damn I remember EVERYONE was saying that. I remember reading similar articles as a kid and I was legit worried cause I wasn't much of a multi-player player myself. Happy to see single player games never left and if anything got even better.
"Conquering the uncanny Valley" I think we're pretty close with this one. Some games already have really amazing characters. But we also still have games like Mass Effect Andromeda.
"Always connected" that has to be the most accurate one by far.
ID: gq6008lID: gq64r14This “end of single player” sentiment has been around since the Quake multiplayer beta (~1995).
And while single player games still exist they take a much smaller piece of the pie these days compared to what they once did. The actual dollar amount has significantly increased though. Both these facts are true even if you only consider pure single player games (i.e. no multiplayer integration ala Dark Souls, Mass Effect 3 or Gravity Rush 2).
So the question is whether an overall decline in single player games as a percentage of industry revenue means they are dying, or an overall increase in revenue means they are going strong.
It’s a similar situation to adventure games, which many considered dead or dying even while revenue increased every year.
Certainly the increase in predominately single player games with some multiplayer component, as predicted by the person in the article, has held true.
ID: gq5s5hd"Always connected" that has to be the most accurate one by far.
Regrettably. GaaS is the worst thing to happen to games in my lifetime, and I have no problem making that statement in absolute. They are, by design, riddled with skinner boxes, predatory monetization practices, and other psychologically manipulative tactics like "not gambling" mechanics and FOMO.
ID: gq6bpxuThe end of single player has always been a strange worried. It was probably at its strangest in 2017 when EA cancelled a Star Wars game and suddenly everyone was worried about single player games when 2017 was a year full of incredible single player games like BOTW, Persona 5, Nier Automata, Horizon Zero Dawn, Yakuza 0, Xenoblade 2, Mario Odyssey etc.
ID: gq6khw7The "single player will end" must be, along with the PC gaming is dying, one of the most recurring and always off predictions.
The fact that we live in a connected world and people have tablets/phones, doesn't mean people will stop liking single player games, or they won't want a gaming PC.
Just look at the amount of successful and popular single player indie games like Subnautica, Celeste, Hades, etc.ID: gq6nhhgHonestly video games had made it past the uncanny valley by the time this article was written. Any modern game that lands within it (which is rare) is due to a failure on the part of the artists, and not a technical limitation.
ID: gq5ygehThey did worse than single player ending
They added mtx everywhere
ID: gq5wa8y"Single player will end" damn I remember EVERYONE was saying that.
It's not that far from the reality though. Yes a lot of great single player games exist but we also have a ton of GaaS-type games or multiplayers with no single player campaign. Such as Genshin Impact, Destiny, Anthem, Avengers, Apex, Fortnite, OW, Star wars BF1.
It was even rumored that the new Dragon age was going to be one before Anthem failed miserably
ID: gq6dud8He’s almost right, though. He specified that single player games will become more like Demon’s Souls, where even in a single player mode you are connected to the internet and doing things. Nearly every single player game has some form of connectivity to it these days.
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I think it's interesting how the disastrous reveal of the Xbox One killed the corporate dream of the always- active console stone dead.
I remember how every think piece from this era had some variation of "This console will be able to track your breathing and monitor your heartbeat at all hours of every day. Isn't that cool!?!?!"
And then Microsoft actually tried to put those words into action with the Xbox One, and it went so catastrophically wrong that it permanently tainted that consoles reputation. As it turns out, most people weren't cool with a console basically being a permanently active spybox staring at them in their home. It's weird to think about how close DRINK A VERIFICATION CAN came to reality.
Of course, data harvesting and things of the sort have grown in the past 10 years, but in the console/ console- adjacent sphere nothing, except maybe the Quest 2, approaches what Microsoft tried with the X1.
ID: gq5vdbkThe most beautiful part of that story, to me, was the U.S. Military saying "fuck no" to an always on ("standby mode") camera and mic.
XBox's relationship with the military is a really big deal, with service members getting deep discounts and XBox arcades set up in recruiting stations, but somehow they failed to ask anyone in the department of defense if they'd be cool with this.
ID: gq67wegThe og xbox one had some really cool ideas that I’m still a little salty got pushed aside. It was almost gonna be this steam box type of deal where you could save and share games digitally among yourself and your friends. I always figured that if the online prices for games could stay relatively low with better discounts and such that it would’ve been a big hit.
As for the spying stuff, I always felt like that was overblown. And it doesn’t matter anyway since it isn’t like our phones aren’t mass collecting data as it is, a phenomenon which was definitely in place by 2013 standards.
ID: gq6m40uAs it turns out, most people weren't cool with a console basically being a permanently active spybox staring at them in their home.
Microsoft was just a few years too early.
Google and Amazon/Echo are proof of that.
ID: gq6adfsOne of the best copypastas of all time.
ID: gq6iz1cDisastrous according to who? 4chan? Xbox One was the best selling Xbox ever, massively successful for everyone at Microsoft. Kinect games never really took off but that was because technology wasn't good enough not because people on forums made a greentext.
Funnily enough Sony implemented the same "game tied to your account" system with PS+ soon after.
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In 2011, a Rovio boss (Angry Birds) also made his own prediction which I'm glad to say hasn't become true:
Thoughts?
ID: gq5tlh2Dead is the wrong word but if you look at platforms by number of players and total revenue mobile is now miles ahead. But that seems to be mostly from people who didn't play video games before. The core "gamer" demographics seem to be on the same platforms as before.
ID: gq5ygarI mean that sounds like a marketing position as well: I don't think he believed that when he said it, but saying it anyway can bring more investors to his sector instead of console gaming. Economy is full of self-fulfilling prophecies, after all
ID: gq64lsxThe funny thing is that, outside of a few lucky games, gaming on phones is in a bad place. It's a saturated market with mountains of free to play crap competing for users.
There are fewer paid games for mobile (and a lot less room for creativity and risk) then there were in the early-mid 2010s. Apple is trying to turn things around with Apple Arcade, but the market for phone games mostly sucks.
ID: gq6eqe9God the early 2010's had such a hardon for console's dying and free to play mobile and PC games being the future, thankfully it only it only took like 3 years into the decade to prove them wrong.
ID: gq6c8nrHe’s wrong about console gaming dying but he’s right about the mobile market. The mobile market is like triple the size of console + PC gaming COMBINED and pulls in crazy profits that most traditional games couldnt even dream of
ID: gq6hs73One day we’ll all stop conflating video games and mobile games. They’re different products for different people. We don’t compare video games sales to...tire sales, or tickets on cruise ships.
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This was an interesting read. I think it would be interesting to think about games in 2031 - 10 years from now.
will MTX go crazy? (Crazier?) Will game prices go up or down? will esports continue its growth and become more mainstream? will Tencent own everything? Cloud gaming (streaming the game to a thin client) be mainstream? the rise of the social MMO - think of the game Facebook could create?Curious to see people’s thoughts.
ID: gq6ajwbMy predictions
1) Mtx will be worse off but not incredibly so. 2) It will take longer than 10 years to get to 80$ 3) Almost definitely 4) They’ll own a minority stake in everything and a majority stake in some things. 5) That’s a tough one... I think so. 6) Isn’t that what second life is? I don’t see a social mmo taking off into the mainstream.
ID: gq6f4icI think the most important/gamechanging (in a literal sense) predictions should revolve around VR if we're talking 10 years from now.
Also consider that 10 years from now we'll either be on the "Pro" consoles of the next generation (i.e. PS6 Pro), and/or only 1-2 years away from the next-next generation (i.e. PS7).
The PS7 should be expected to be at least 50x as powerful as the PS5, in real-terms (i.e. accounting for everything, new techniques, etc. not necessarily 50x the TFlop number).
Other things to consider, which may impact gaming are:
We'll be on 6G, or maybe even 7G, mobile networks
Starlink will be at full coverage of ~42,000 Gen3 satellites
So the combination of the above 2 means literally the entire world will be covered by bare minimum 500 Mbps sub-20 ms internet (also there's no way data caps will survive, so rejoice America)
Additionally, we should be on 7th generation Ray Tracing and AI-acceleration hardware, and a transistor node in the ballpark of ~18-20x the density of 7nm
Lastly, AI will be extremely mature by then, so likely will be used to accelerate all kinds of things, from game performance to game design (e.g. no physics/rigging will be done by hand any more, a dev will just import their character model and then drag-and-drop the "AI rigging" plugin to it)
So, essentially, we'll have completely absurd levels of compute power, and functionally "unlimited"/"perfect" connectivity.
This should allow for the idealised version of game streaming/cloud gaming from servers to be possible, and could allow for a Ready Player One level of VR/AR, whether people think that's good or bad, haha.
EDIT: Thought I'd my basic angle here is to think about hardware/connectivity capability first, to then think about what gaming design would be possible. Rather than current trends/design and extrapolating that to the future.
Also, having looked back at my own points, I think it's plausible we won't see a PS7 generation for realsies this time.
It's been pretty obvious each time cloud gaming has been tried so far that the real issue is internet connectivity, but Starlink should be fully populated and on Gen2 satellites by 2027/2028, as well as 5G being fully rolled out and mature, and 6G's rollout underway, in the same timeframe.
So while by ~2026 (when PS6 should arrive) I'm not sure the internet infrastructure will quite be there yet, the internet should become functionally "perfect"/"unlimited" by ~2028, across literally the entire world.
And this would be a good thing if it became the industry standard (i.e. Microsoft and Sony don't launch a new console, but they both build their own server networks and are still platforms like today), because cloud gaming can overcome a lot of design constraints to allow bigger and more connected games (e.g. huge MMOs). Google mentioned this when they were launching Stadia, but of course Google put in zero effort so it flopped, but they weren't lying about the potential.
ID: gq6jl0xGame prices will always go up at the end of the day. Inflation makes sure of it.
ID: gq6da5sMy predictions
will MTX go crazy? (Crazier?)
I don't really think this is happening, publishers have realized that f2p games that don't lock p2w content behind paywall like fortnite can be very successful.I do however see subscription based games like FFXIV be more common.
Will game prices go up or down?
Subscription services are going to take over imo and every publisher would try to have their own one, which would decrease the value and price of physical media.will esports continue its growth and become more mainstream?
Yes.will Tencent own everything?
They already do own a minority stake in most gaming publishers and I think they're going to be acquiring more but not everything.Cloud gaming (streaming the game to a thin client) be mainstream?
Definitely will become mainstream in the next 5 years even not 10 -
If you told people that Valve would release one single-player FPS in the next 10 years after Portal 2, it's Half-Life in VR, and it still isn't the killer app that blasts VR into a household gaming commodity, how many people do you think would believe you?
ID: gq6a48xJust about everyone. When Portal 2 was released people were already lamenting Valve’s slowed release schedule. And everyone knew Steam was on the rise and/or had already arrived.
ID: gq60t9xConsumer VR was a fairly exciting and new development back then, with the advent of the Oculus Rift and such, and Valve didn't have as bad a reputation as they do today. So I think a lot of people would believe such a claim.
ID: gq6gbg4Half Life Alyx caused Index's to be sold out for months.
PCVR will never be a household item. Mobile VR like the quest will be, and I'd argue already is. So many people have them now.
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Just gonna copy my answer from the last thread as it was getting traction:
Really funny to read articles like that. Just going through the points to see how they evolved:
Motion controls didn't really evolve further it got relegated to VR but the main gaming scene was glad to get rid of it Holodecks still aren't a thing. Hololens was relegated to the industry instead of gaming Motion capture gets better and better but it really depends on the game and the budget. Not everybody strives for that Always connected gaming experiences went from MMOs to GaaS games. Not really the evolution that I wanted but it is what it is. Still didn't cross the uncanny valley. People don't want to be monitored by consoles. Devs and publishers just use meta data to pander to the lowest common denominator. The only thing they really did was pushing MTX to get people to gamble with lootboxes. Kinda sad. Single player gaming never died and I think it is there to stay Software for education is an old idea but I never really saw any further development there. There are apps to make the lives of teachers easier and AC had those virtual tours which were nice. But it is still the same as it was in the 80s. At least here in Switzerland. Some other user claimed that Minecraft or code based games are used in education. But Switzerland is a bit behind. I work in IT and have a lot of schools as customers and they don't really deploy anything special. 3D was just a gimmick and died in favor of VR. VR gets expanded more and moreSomehow in retrospect did we even evolve at all in those 10 years? We just ditched ideas that we didn't want like motion controls, expanded a bit on VR which still isn't mainstream and have games riddled with MTX that abuse addictive behaviour. Other than that we got bigger and nicer looking games but not that much different.
ID: gq5vgaiSomehow in retrospect did we even evolve at all in those 10 years?
I'd say yes, not in innovations and new ways to play, but by refining what we already had and messing around with gameplay concepts. Movement in recent games can be so much better than they were 10 years ago. The writing in general got better, characters feel lively, and the focus in terms of visuals has been split so we have tons of games trying to go for incredible art direction instead of realism. None of that is new, but it's been much more prominent.
That's pretty much because of how huge the gaming industry is right now - indie titles can be huge hits, and there are new quality games every week. Multiplayer has been reinvented, in some ways to a fault, but you can't deny how great it feels when a game you love is constantly being cared for and updated. Yes, there are a lot of bad examples for this, but it can be done in a humane manner
ID: gq5y0kcI think motion controls did a proper move from “Pioneered tech that was overexemplified” into “applied properly and conditionally into regular control techniques”.
Like, having something like the Wii try to shoehorn motion control techniques into so many games that would be better with tactile control became a burden after a while- but even looking as far back as 3DS, I couldn’t imagine aiming in N64 OOT or MM after the gyro aiming in the 3D versions, and bow controls in BOTW are so satisfying and accurate.
I don’t play many console FPS but from what I understand, gyro control mixed with sticks is the go-to for speed and accuracy. I tried Splatoon 2 and didn’t like how they limited the axis correction to horizontal, but people who do tolerate it absolutely excel at stomping people like me- and I personally felt that gyro ADS in Fortnite was a game changer when I used to play.
Granted, to PC players, KBM will always be king in competitive games that require any type of aiming, and the way gyro/motion has been incorporated into more normative gaming control styles on consoles may go by unnoticed- but as somebody who had a Wii and quickly grew cold on motion as a central control style, I love how it’s been refined and baked into more traditional gaming control techniques more modernly.
ID: gq5s1l8I'm incredibly upset the general gaming public is hostile to motion controls/gyro. Shooters would be so much more skill based and a lot more fun to play with a controller of gyro was widespread.
ID: gq60oa5VR seems like it is capturing a lot of the tech angle and its often a natural fit (like motion controls). I hope it keeps getting better, it seems like its lasted longer than 3D now (which never even seemed that great to begin with).
Don't you think AAA is through the uncanny valley now though? Sony games look basically like movies. I guess you can still tell its CG like how you can pick out the dead actors in Star Wars movies but I wouldn't call it unsettling.
Kids play games in class all the time here, usually fortnite on their phone haha.ID: gq61dx0Industry is more mature so there are less things to invent, and more things to get better at.
Like, you could write small book just about every element of modern game, and big fat books about few of them like proper balancing for PvP, or how to make good RPG gear progression.
ID: gq66pl7It’s a shame that motion controls never took off. First person perspective controls on a console are the biggest unsolved problem in gaming, made all the more frustrating because it’s actually already solved by gyro aiming.
ID: gq69xjnThe biggest change of the 2010s compared to the 2000s is that digital games surpassed physical, the rise of mobile gaming and indie games have exploded in popularity.
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What predictions do you have for the next 10 years of gaming?
VR/AR go mainstream right at the end of that timeline and have a massive impact on all aspects of gaming, becoming a popular way to consume flatscreen games on virtualized displays.
PlayStation Home will be back in a different form, Xbox Live parties will focus on VR/AR avatars, and Discord will focus on VR/AR chatrooms.
Many gamers no longer stream E3/Gamescom/Game Awards/Esports, but attend a 1:1 recreation of the event with their friends where they can participate in game demos, minigames, take selfies, cosplay, and meet industry veterans.
Game developers now attend a virtual GDC each year as VR avatars and network like they do in person.
A lot of Twitch streamers are avatars instead of real faces, with everyone having access to Hollywood level mocap in real-time using a headset and a camera or two, and virtual Twitch meetups with fans happen regularly thanks to VR/AR.
Photorealism will have been successfully achieved, including in VR.
ID: gq6bwejMoreover, I have a bold prediction that VR will probably go mainstream with a social MMO. This is not a farfetched prediction considering that Second Life was a thing, and people are prone to, eventually, be enticed by a similar premise of a world not-so-different from ours, granted that it receives the right initial marketing and spark of word of mouth. And I think this will happen with a social MMO rather than any actual gameplay genre because socializing is something you just... Do. Games do need to be learned, and even the inevitable "Sword Art Online - but for real" will need to sell people on the gameplay, and I think the mainstream won't be receptive until VR itself is something the mainstream has first hand experience on. And it is within that Social MMO where they'll learn of the viability of virtualized workspaces and gaming stations and come to normalize the view of looking at a screen from within VR.
I think the photorealism prediction is wrong btw, as are the "events will trend towards digital". Not due to lack of trying, I just think these things will not become financially viable. 100% share the sentiment that Virtual Avatar as Personalities will be spot-on tho. Maybe not MOST, but a significant amount of them will do it and at least one of the 5 top personalities online will be a Digital Persona who holds things like virtual meet and greets.
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Just once I'd like one of these 'in the future" things to predict a future that is less cool than the one we actually get.
ID: gq6aix8The predicted death of single player games was pretty uncool.
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What predictions do you have for the next 10 years of gaming?
Desert setting is gonna be a constant every year after elder scrolls 6 comes out. The influx of norse games after es5 was not only consistent, but also long lasting. I expect the same thing to happen with whatever new vibe es6 is going for.
Rpg revival is going to innovate in its last 2 years and then die out. I don't think old school crpg nostalgia games are long for this world anymore, but I get the feeling that its last years are going to be its most exciting.
Death of Bioware. No hope for the company anymore, mid 2020s is where I see it die. Hope not though, but christ, they've been awful for half a decade now.
China takeover. Sadly not only in the gaming industry.
3rd person movie game fatigue in the early to mid 2020's. To me these are starting to feel like the brown shooters from the late 2000's, and I suspect that a lot of people are gonna get tired of them somewhere this decade.
VR actually becomes mainstream in the first half of the 2020's.
Xbox evening the playing field against Sony by buying up more high profile companies.
More sony exclusives for the pc.
Death of E3, and full hollywood takeover of the game awards.
Late 2020's prediction. New deus ex game is gonna be game of the year, and rockstar releases red dead 3, which is a prequel to red dead 2.
And one more hope/prediction. The last night is gonna come out in the next 2 years and will be an indie breakout hit.
ID: gq6cim9Xbox won’t catch up to Playstation unless they do what they did during the 360 days, go after casuals, get exclusivity content and marketing rights for casual games like CoD, FIFA and GTA. They are the home of Playstation now but back then it was Xbox.
ID: gq6d328Norse games weren't that frequent this decade.
Now zombie games. Jesus heck, what a goddawful spam we got after Dead Island's trailer sparked it and it only got worse from there with Walking Dead's popularity. And they weren't even good. I played Dead Rising 3 at a time, and questioned gaming as a whole. I understand that Zombi was Ubisoft's first game, but I was absolutely checked out and retained zero information the moment their announcement of ZombiU was shown, I utterly couldn't give a single damn about zombie games. Actually made me nearly miss out on RE7 because of how zombie-like it looked (And no, I didn't buy TLOU). I remember 4chan getting so mad at zombies as well, they started shitposting about Dinosaurs being the next thing, and ACTUALLY got Battlefield devs to add a dinosaur easter egg.
And you know what, I'm still mentally checked out. How about we make very little zombie games this decade? Come on studios, you can wait and appeal to that Nostalgia in late 2028, just leave us alone for a bit and make something ACTUALLY creative, it won't hurt you.
ID: gq6f4uthe influx of norse games after es5 was not only consistent, but also long lasting
Maybe I'm blanking but I can't think of THAT many Norse games coming out over the last decade. The two major ones I can think of are God of War and AC Valhalla, both of which are pretty distanced from Skyrim.
3rd person movie game fatigue in the early to mid 2020's
Already fatigued myself. Especially by Sony's games.
ID: gq6eqiiAs someone who just beat pillars 2 I agree with your point of crpgs. They are good but it is clearly not the same seeing how most of the talent that created those crpgs back in the day don't work in the industry anymore or do something else entirely.
ID: gq669d2ES6 isn’t Hammerfell.
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Depends what level of predictions you want. I think there area some easy shots you could take like online systems being woven into singleplayer ones becoming more prevalent than they are now.
Or how gaming probably won't have changed that much in terms of interaction because the current idea of an exertion-less, relatively gentle sensory experience and the familiarity of it is just too appealing for people to completely jump ship to some new kind of experience like holodecks and the like and abandon what we have now.
I also wouldn't be surprised if a more refined streaming service has finally taken off by then which doesn't completely fail to explain what it is or how it works to the average layman, and is actually affordable and not riddled with false promises.
If I make a slightly bolder (and admittedly hopeful) prediction, I don't think downloads will be an issue anymore to most people. I reckon by then file sizes and potentially streaming bandwidth will have become such a noticeable issue in general that something will end up being done in terms of internet where almost across the board speeds/caps are in such a place that they're not even a thing most people have to worry about.
We're already getting games breaking 100GB as of last gen, god knows where we'll be 10 years from now and internet providers will have to adapt. There's some stuff like Sony letting you choose what parts of a game you download but that feels more like a temporary band-aid than a permanent solution. If we're going to have a future of streaming 4K games or 4K/8K films then services have to adapt to make that viable, or so I hope.
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Games Will Make You Happy
Out of all predictions this one is the biggest miss. In past 10 years games just make me more and more sad.
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In 10 years time, game consoles will know a lot more about you. "It'd be nice to think that we can form a map of the player, including real-time data like heart rate and facial expressions," said Hocking. "Once you have this type of information, games can learn the emotional state of the player deliver an experience to change that emotional state." IF you're said, turn on your PlayStation 4 (or 5) and let your console make you feel happy again.
Oof, can't tell if they were just always out of touch with what's stepping they'll the privacy line, or if user perspectives have changed since then. But this gives me big I Don't Want That vibes
ID: gq6a7f3Tbf, that was before Snowden publicly revealed companies were selling your data to the US government.
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During 2006-2013 there was a huge push for motion controls, 3D everything, online everything, multiplayer everything, VR, touch controls, mobile gaming, and everything else under the sun.
The E3’s from that era were the worst, we sat through so much Kinect and PS Move and multiplayer being forced into every franchise.
Then along came the PS4 and proved that no one wants motion controls, no one wants multiplayer, no one wants online only, no one wants touch controls, at the end of the day, gamers just want a controller and a console with AAA single player experiences. Sure the PS2 is the best-selling console of all-time, but the PS4 truly revived and saved gaming as it obliterated the Xbox One & Switch and all of the PS4’s top selling games are single player games from Sony.
ID: gq5snr7no one wants multiplayer
That's a strange thing to say when the most popular and most profitable games are multiplayer games and have existed for decades.
Also I'd argue that it's the indie scene that really revitalized gaming.
ID: gq5sk0t$400 at launch felt like a mic drop.
They were already in a uniquely beneficial position because XBox had completely shit the bed with their vision for an always online data collection box with a microphone and camera just a week or so earlier, not to mention the whole used game resale and backwards compatibility fiasco. Sony had basically won the console war without firing a shot, and then they unveiled what they prepared for $200+inflation less than their previous console.
Giving players the simple things they actually wanted made them out to be the good guys, but doing it affordably made them heroes.
ID: gq5slb6Agree with everything except your take on multiplayer. Multiplayer games are as popular as ever.
all of the PS4’s top selling games are single player games from Sony.
Of the top 5 selling ps4 games, 2 are multiplayer shooters and one is gta v, which remains the most lucrative piece of entertainment in history because of its insanely popular multiplayer mode.
ID: gq6a7onObliterated the Switch? What are you even on dude? Both consoles have done extremely well
PS4 truly revived and saved gaming
As if gaming was even dead after the Wii, 360 and PS3 generation...
ID: gq63zgmConsidering the Switch is already 80% caught up to the PS4 despite only having half it's total lifespan, I think a better comparison would be to say PS4 obliterated the Wii U.
ID: gq69pltThe biggest games of the last 10 years have been multiplayer only. Minecraft, Fortnite, Call of Duty...
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I actually used to love 3D gaming. Even when just using the auto-3D on some higher end TVs, it was a cool gimmick. I used to play Battlefield 3 in 3D, and it was genuinely awesome.
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One thing for me is that the uncanny valley is almost worse than ever. The better graphics and animation get, the more obvious it becomes when something seems off. I'm playing Spiderman and all I can see are gigantic spice racks, this guy that constantly sweeps the air with a broom, that kind of shit.
ID: gq6eyjiim so glad the uncanny valley doesn't impact me / i never see it cause that sounds awful
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It’s interesting how many predictions were technically correct but vastly overestimated the impact of the technology or the experience, often simply because they neglected to take the hardware cost into account.
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In the future, your game console will become your friend. Kinect already knows your name and your gaming likes and dislikes. In 10 years time, game consoles will know a lot more about you. "It'd be nice to think that we can form a map of the player, including real-time data like heart rate and facial expressions," said Hocking. "Once you have this type of information, games can learn the emotional state of the player deliver an experience to change that emotional state." IF you're said, turn on your PlayStation 4 (or 5) and let your console make you feel happy again.
Honestly, I'm surprised this isn't really a thing. You'd think by now console UI would be a lot more like Amazon, Facebook, or Google's extremely creepy targeted advertising, which guide you to products by tracking, analyzing, and then unsubtly nudging you in their desired direction. Especially given how strong the "consumer goods are coincidentally real therapy!" wave in our culture is.
If I had to guess why that isn't the case, I'd say it's because neither Sony nor (surprisingly) Microsoft have the same amount of data and/or analytical capability as the FAANGs.
ID: gq6n5fjThe store interfaces in Steam and PlayStation Store do sort offer you games "similar" to what you've played or bought, although on PSS it's much more wonky and most of the time doesn't reflect my interests. Steam recommendations system probably works better
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I think in 10 years we could very well have a type of VR MMO that a lot of people play. Hopefully haptic feedback becomes better and cheaper.
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I think people and companies often exaggerate expectations that gaming is gong to become something new, somehow more interactive. Nintendo is the best example, because they often implement new types of haptic feedback, or 3D visuals into their consoles.
The reality is that gaming is still pretty much unchanged since the 1970s in a lot of ways. Pong was a console game that you played on a pad. Most games are still played on a console with a pad. Online services may continue to expand the scope for connectivity and facilitate new types of online play, but in my opinion gaming in ten years is going to be much the same as it is today.
My second prediction will be that there may be a greater divergence between service games, which demand online integration and constant updates, and single player focused games which can be played without internet and become a 'final product'. I think that the danger is that single player games will have increasingly longer development times, and for a lot of people there will be a shift in attitude towards single player gamers who will be incentivised to wait longer and longer for their game to be finished; and service gamers who continue to obsessively follow one title, investing in it until they move on to the next service game. I think that for millennials and gen x, single player and big budget games will remain the main attraction, while gen z will focus more on service games.
I'll be very interested to find out what gen z will be nostalgic for as they mature. For me, I feel that as a millennial, my nostalgia is for single player PS1/PS2 era games which get rereleased for modern systems with shiny new visuals and better controls. Will gen z want to play discontinued service games, which go back into persistent development? I suspect that for many, they may just end up playing the same games into adulthood. Like fortnight et al will still be popular, but they might bring back events from their launch to satisfy that nostalgic itch. Fuck knows. Kids amiright.
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pretty unexpected but honestly, tv made far greater advances in the past 10 years than video games did
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Honestly, these predictions are pretty great for how long ten years is in gaming.
The only huge misses are the death of singleplayer, the console tracking your heart rate and facial expressions, and the hologram thing.
We're pretty much past the uncanny valley.
Mocap is really good (maybe not past Hollywood, but plenty strong in some AAA titles).
2D games are kinda seen as retro already. Plenty of exceptions, like Ori, but most of them are marketed as nostalgic or retro in some way.
VR is slowly entering the mainstream and now has HL: Alyx as a "flagship" title.
Serious gaming hasn't evolved that much, but Minecraft's education version did make a splash there. Serious games may make a comeback if people ever realize we need to put computer classes back in schools (seriously, kids know phones, not computers). At least the typing ones might.
I think a lot of people are missing on the always-connected games. Pokemon Go was absolutely massive and is still a huge game. Street pass was big for a while, too. I think that box was ticked, more or less.
ID: gq6mclzI’m pretty sure he was talking about games being in stereoscopic 3D. Like with 3D glasses. Otherwise I agree.
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Most of it is still flying cars by 1999 type of predictions. We're closer to it but still a loooooooooooooong ways off from the reality of it as they saw it back then.
The safest prediction in 10 (2031) years is that we'll be marginally better than we are now.
Mine are:
VR is better but at best, triple the current market space (that's like less than 10% of all games sold) Graphics will be way better but still not crossing the uncanny valley, certainly not on console and certainly not on multiplayer focused titles. The concept of "[insert any number description] player games" will still be alive and strong. There will be more Genshin Impact, single player F2P games and they'll gradually get bigger and better... they will not represent most (50%+) single player games though. there will be fewer single player games only because technically, more games will have some tacked on multiplayer element that technically makes them not "single player" anymore. personal hope: PS1 era graphics become the new retro chic, competing with pixel art for throwback gamers.
引用元:https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/m03mr7/what_do_you_think_of_this_ign_article_from_2011/
Single player and mutiplayer games have and always will coexist. The idea that they're eating eachother is asinine. Most GaaS games are competing against eachother for a player base, not with single player games. They're different but effective revenue streams that aren't really in any way mutually exclusive.
As somebody who is like 95% single player focused, 2021 is a billion times better than the state of things in 2011, let alone their projected future. Look how much the three major console manufacturers have invested into AAA single player experiences at the moment. Nintendo and Sony have put their entire brand into that basket. Microsoft just bought 1000 studios to make what seems like a shit ton of single player RPGs. Other publishers like Capcom and Square Enix are producing much better single player output than they were 10 years ago. And the bevy of indie games goes without saying.