[Serious] Why will the Cincinnati Reds exceed expectations? Why won’t they?

1 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:26 ID: m22xzg

What are the expectations for the Reds this year? Why will they exceed those expectations? Why won't they?

We'll be asking this same question about every team in the next month, going from the bottom of the standings up through the top, and finishing up just in time for Opening Day!

Tomorrow's team: Cardinals

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2 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:26 ID: gqgux06

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3 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:30 ID: gqgvoo0

Senzel is going to slash .285, hit 30+ Hr, and swipe 15+ bags.

ID: gqgxs6b

God I hope so

ID: gqhhjmu

If this happens I will literally give you 2 platinum awards. I'm serious, I'm saving this comment for this purpose.

ID: gqhv8qr

Can it be a "slash" if you don't give a slash line?

4 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:31 ID: gqgvs20

Will: They had probably the unluckiest offensive year ever. I refuse to believe that Moustakas, Castellanos, Suarez, etc forgot how to hit. The offense is there, especially if Winker can continue to hit well.

Senzel should hopefully be healthy, but who knows. They still have Castillo and Gray at the top of the rotation

Won’t: They’re the Reds and always find a way to fuck everything up or half ass it. No shortstop. Horrible defense

5 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:39 ID: gqgx91z

The post directly underneath this post was that Voto is going on the disabled list. So they will presumably under achieve for that reason.

ID: gqhxovh

He’s got Covid

6 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:51 ID: gqgzizn

It seems like most of the predictions have the Reds in the high 70's win range finishing either 3rd or 4th in the division.

Most people know by now that the 2020 Reds had one of the unluckiest offensives seasons in MLB history. I think it is reasonable to assume that guys that had down years at the plate last year will bounce back to a certain degree. I expect guys like Suarez, Castellanos and Senzel to improve tremendously from last year. I expect guys like Moustakas, Votto, and Akiyama to at least slightly improve numbers from last year. Jesse Winker may not slash a .932 OPS again this year, but he may not need to if the rest of the crew picks up the pace.

The glaring hole in the offense is at shortstop. It is still anyone's guess as to who will be between second base and third base on opening day. Smart money says it's Kyle Farmer, the team's utility guy for the last two years who they tried out at SS sparingly last season. They also have Jose Garcia who was brought up too early at age 22 straight from High-A ball. He will likely start the year in the minors. Then there's Kyle Holder, a 26 year old rule-5 pick from Philadelphia who came up through the Yankees system and never cracked the majors. All indications are that he's a glove-first SS with a career OPS just a hair north of .700. Neither of these three guys seem like players that should be starting on a team that expects to make the playoffs, and the way the Reds missed out on the three big name free agent shortstops is not a good signal to send to the fans.

The rotation, despite losing the reigning Cy Young winner in Bauer, still may be solid. Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray are a great 1-2 punch. Beyond that, there's Tyler Mahle, a 26 year old that showed some real promise in his 9 starts last year, bouncing back from his rough 2019 season. Wade Miley had an injury filled first season with the Reds last year, throwing just 14.1 innings of disaster. Maybe there's a chance he gets back near his 2019 numbers with Houston, though I doubt it. There's also Tejay Antone who has been getting lots of fanfare for his elite spinrate. There's talk that he could be placed in the rotation, but some say he should be a back-end bullpen piece. I think he ends up in the starting 5 and has a shot to be a top of the rotation guy.

The bullpen lost Rasiel Iglesias and Archie Bradley. Iglesias has been the closer for years, and now the closer spot is up for grabs, though it appears they may go committee on that one. Amir Garrett and Sean Doolittle are two lefties that are locks to make the roster, probably leaving just one more lefty spot in the pen. Michael Lorenzen will be there, as well as Lucas Sims. Sims may end up sharing closer duties with Garrett especially if Antone is in the rotation. The Reds have invested a lot of money and time into pitching development over the last couple of years, so we may see that start to pay off.

I think if everything breaks the right way, the Reds could end up in a playoff race, although I may be more optimistic than others. What might prevent that is abysmal production out of the SS position, Votto's continued regression, and an aging roster that is unable to hit enough homers to make things exciting. I see them winning 82 games this year.

ID: gqh3qpq

I think if everything breaks the right way, the Reds could end up in a playoff race, although I may be more optimistic than others.

I think the Reds have a strong chance of being in playoff contention in September, absolutely.

...but that's more of an indictment on the NL Central than anything. The Reds would have to put things together and play well, but the advantage of playing in what'll probably be the softest division in the game is that it only takes a few player playing better than expected to lift a team into contention.

7 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:32 ID: gqgvznu

My expectations are about .500.

Why they'll exceed that: The pitching development continues to be excellent and the historically bad BABIP improves and guys like Suarez, Moustakas, and Castellanos have bounceback years.

Why they won't: Kyle Farmer will be starting at shortstop.

8 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:30 ID: gqgvp4p

Will: Division is weak

Won’t: didn’t take advantage of that opportunity and preferred to save money by leaving major holes

ID: gqh49ab

There’s actually only one major hole on this team and it’s SS. Iglesias trade was dumb but Lucas Sims would have been competing for the closer spot even with Iglesias here

ID: gqhcpeh

Is it really fair to call the NLC weak?

9 : Anonymous2021/03/10 20:52 ID: gqhq4up

Will: The Central is weak outside of St. Louis. A still well above average rotation assuming we roll Antone in there (SP: Gray, Castillo, Mahle, Miley, Antone) and what is shaping up to be a good bullpen with Sims or Garrett taking the closer role and solid arms throughout it. Our bats will likely move back to the mean and perform more in line with 2019 than 2020, including Suarez now that he's far enough away from shoulder surgery and Castellanos should also hopefully pick it back up at the plate.

Won't: We're ride or die with either Blandino or Farmer at SS. Our fielding likely will continue to not be great excluding Barnhart behind the plate and Senzel in center. Shogo Akiyama doesn't feel like the solution in left field and I'm worried he's not going to be consistently batting at the level he ended the regular season on last year.

ID: gqigzsj

I don’t think St. Louis is that good. Yes they got Arenado, but they also lost Wong. A lot of their offensive outside of Goldy and Arenado has to come from their young guys.

Milwaukee seems like the best team to me

10 : Anonymous2021/03/10 17:47 ID: gqgyu8j

Will: NL Central

Won't: NL Central

ID: gqhd45q


11 : Anonymous2021/03/10 20:34 ID: gqhnlp3

Weak ass division is my guess

12 : Anonymous2021/03/10 20:41 ID: gqhooz0

will: castellanos, suarez, and moustakas are still very good hitters, akiyama will probably improve having had a year to adjust, and michael lorenzen really might be better suited for the rotation now. castillo and gray are great pitchers and the competition is weak. doolittle/sims/garrett as the big three in the bullpen should be an improvement over last year.

won't: they limped to .500 in a weak division last season and their best player from 2020 by far is now gone. senzel looked awful in limited time last season, they're going with kyle farmer as the full time shortstop. who knows how long votto will be out, and they really don't have a backup on the roster (grullon? cuthbert? aquino?) and have shown reluctance towards signing any impact players this offseason. fangraphs did a great piece on why they're the biggest chokers this offseason.

my expectation: 70 wins. i was really hyped for these guys last season, but i feel worse for fans here than anyone else, now that votto is out. the rockies will almost certainly trade story and tank properly, whereas the reds went all-in last season and are now a middling team, with a big missed opportunity for the division title this year. simmons or gregorius would've been a phenomenal fit, and kyle boddy would do amazing work with kluber and odorizzi, who were pretty cheap. i'd love to be proven wrong, but this team has big holes.

ID: gqhy9wr

Votto is out for Covid so we should still have him. If we can hit this season we should be a decent team in contention for the central.

13 : Anonymous2021/03/10 21:47 ID: gqhxsxv

will: lolcentral, good pitching staff even with losing bauer, and arguably the unluckiest offense in baseball history will perform better. healthy senzel will get every opportunity to perform and wouldn't be shocked if he did. also story will be available at the deadline so if they're in contention I wouldn't be shocked to see him go there

wont: you better hope for double digit K/9 numbers all around cause balls in play are getting through that defense. bad bench. kyle farmer is not a big league shortstop. if one of castillo or gray goes down the season's over.

lot of possible outcomes; if they're doing well by the trade deadline I wouldn't be shocked to see them vault into legit contenders with grabbing a SS like Story on a rental. if they catch the injury bug or just underperform I also wouldn't be shocked to see Castillo sent off for all of a team's top 30 prospects. if im a reds fan I'm most worried about being stuck in between and kneecapping the future and the present.

ID: gqi4jlp

we’ve been stuck in between since 2015

14 : Anonymous2021/03/10 22:14 ID: gqi1eug

My expectation = 79 wins.

Will exceed if: offense dominates a fairly weak NL Central. No way they have another historically low BABIP this year.

Won't exceed if: pitching falls apart. Castillo and Gray will be fine. Long-term consistency hasn't been there yet for Mahle, Miley, and whomever wins the #5 spot (looking like Lorenzen).

15 : Anonymous2021/03/10 23:01 ID: gqi795n

Not really a will/won't format just an overall status.

I think management got spooked by Covid so that's probably why they didn't make any big splashes like they did last off season. Who knows, maybe they'll pull a monumental Story or Seager trade out of their ass but they seem pretty content with the SS situation. So that tells me either they have an unhealthy amount of confidence in Garcia or whatever cutout we drag out there, or they simply don't think SS is a priority position.

Pitching is gonna be our strongest area. We have Gray and Castillo as a solid 1-2 punch at the top. Mahle I think is gonna be the under the radar stud however. He's been threatening to breakout and sort of did so last year, but I think this year he is going to be a solid 3rd rotation anchor. Rotation numbers 4 and 5 are gonna be the big question marks. Antone is fighting for one of those spots, and he looks to be very promising. Prospects like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are also fighting for spots, both of which are extremely talented for their age. Our bullpen seems pretty strong with Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims, and Lorenzen holding it down. And if Doolittle can get back to 2018 form, then we may very well have one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Our babip was historically low last year, so as long as things go back to league average, our offense will be much more potent with the pieces we added last off-season. Hopefully we can have better seasons from people like Senzel and Akiyama who are both super talented. Winker sorta broke out last year and became the best hitter in the league for a couple of weeks, hopefully he can continue that into this year. Suarez has said he wants to hit 50 homers this year, which if he wants to I say go for it but he needs to watch his strikeout rate. Last thing we need is a Joey Gallo on the team.

Joey Votto absolutely raked at home last year. His batting numbers when he played in home games are on par with Freddie Freeman's MVP winning numbers. Problem is when he played in away games, he turned into 2011 Adam Dunn levels of incompetent. Joey is known for adjustments. He did so last year by switching his batting stance and style midway through the season and improved his numbers pretty substantially. So if he took what he did at home and worked through the off-season to apply that to every other game. Then we may be in for 2017 Joey Votto levels of baseball dominance.

Questions will still be raised about David Bell, which is understandable. He does make questionable decisions, he is abrasive and loud, but he took this team to the playoffs in just his 2nd season with a team that had a historically bad average and BABIP. He has another year on his contract, so if he does poorly this year, then maybe find a new guy, but if he gets us to the playoffs again, then we have a whole new conversation.

Overall, I'd say our ceiling is 90 wins if everything clicks. Floor is 4th place at 70 wins.

16 : Anonymous2021/03/10 19:59 ID: gqhit0e

The Cardinals are the better team, but I don't think the Brewers, or Cubs are better than the Reds. The offense is there, the pitching is solid, and there's some big prospects on the way. If they play well in the first half and maybe make a few moves at the deadline they're right there.

17 : Anonymous2021/03/10 23:11 ID: gqi8g4y

Will make it to the playoffs and score a run this time.

18 : Anonymous2021/03/11 07:22 ID: gqjoma4

Will: weak division, had an almost impossibly unlucky offense last year, pitching staff is still great

Won’t: lost a cy young winner and gained nothing, no shortstop, offense probably was just shitty last year instead of unlucky and will be again

My prediction is won’t

19 : Anonymous2021/03/11 07:22 ID: gqjomtf

Will: weak division, had an almost impossibly unlucky offense last year, pitching staff is still great

Won’t: lost a cy young winner and gained nothing, no shortstop, offense probably was just shitty last year instead of unlucky and will be again

My prediction is won’t

20 : Anonymous2021/03/11 02:27 ID: gqiuxb5

In a keeper league do you keep nick senzel or Andrew Benintendi


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