AMD’s Ryzen CPU refresh may have been cancelled due to the chip crisis

1 : Anonymous2021/04/28 09:58 ID: n0bdlz
AMD's Ryzen CPU refresh may have been cancelled due to the chip crisis
2 : Anonymous2021/04/28 10:49 ID: gw5ozpd

It makes sense. Why split the supplies among even more SKUs especially when what AMD makes currently is already selling very well.

ID: gw5wdek

it was rumored that the refresh was due to moving to 6nm process, which is a "low effort" node with extreme compatibility with 7nm libraries (similar to glofo 14nm->12nm in zen - zen+ case), which would make sense.

ID: gw60xwg

Afaik 6nm is only an improved 7nm node, so it might be using the same resources.

ID: gw6xqev


ID: gw75kpf

Isn’t the 6nm line different from the 7nm line? Wouldn’t this actually free capacity rather than reduce it?

3 : Anonymous2021/04/28 10:10 ID: gw5ma3t

Now let's hope that they release the 5000 series APUs for customers as 'promised'.

4 : Anonymous2021/04/28 10:25 ID: gw5na96

I hope they will also launch Zen4 earlier. Yields are reported to be good on 5nm. Mass production on DDR5 has also started.

5 : Anonymous2021/04/28 11:16 ID: gw5qztp

There's been some discussion of this already, but I think it would be interesting as an exercise to think what it could mean.

Let's assume what Warhol was indeed designed for the 6N process. Assuming that it was expected to be released in the next half year or so. The design must be finished by now, and lead time at TSMC is at least 6 months, so either AMD had already ordered wafers on the 6N process or it now has to, which is why this is the time it was cancelled.

One option is that the design simply didn't work well. Whatever AMD tried to do, it got a test chip, tested it, and decided that it won't be easy to get it to work as well as or better than the current 7N design.

Another option is that Rembrandt is ahead of schedule and Warhol is late. Warhol was placed on the original roadmap (where it was 7nm Zen3) mid-way between Cezanne and Rembrandt, which would have made it a Q3 product. If Warhol is being cancelled now, it means that it's still a way away. If Rembrandt is in good shape and AMD expects it to provide good competition to Intel's Alder Lake, perhaps AMD thinks that the 6N allocation is better used to make more Rembrandt chips rather than Warhol. This will not only allow AMD to have a compelling mobile chip but also possibly launch AM5 this year with a good CPU (APU) family, to steal Intel's thunder.

There are other speculations I can go into, but these are the ones relevant to the idea that Warhol was a 6N CPU.

ID: gw6xvd5

It's possible that the roadmap is still on track like before but warhol just stopped making sense. Their internal forecast was probably less optimistic than "every chip sells out for the entire year," so in a regular market they may have needed a refresh to attract interest again. Looking at rocketlake's performance, alderlake will probably move past them in single core performance but total throughput is still questionable, so unless intel really knocks it out of the park AMD has some breathing room and may be able to improve volume of deliveries by sticking to an already familiar high yield node.

ID: gw66xj7

Warhol was a desktop chip that was due to follow Vermeer, not an APU or mobile chip.

ID: gw6cao0

True, but I don't see what you're trying to say with this.

ID: gw6j1e3

Good point, I also think that AMD has an interest in canceling Warhol, to focus on Rembrandt, because Vermeer is quite competitive, and there is competition from Apple with M2 which would have gone into production. it would be more judicious to concentrate Rembrandt on 6N.

ID: gw8l4pa

One option is that the design simply didn't work well. Whatever AMD tried to do, it got a test chip, tested it, and decided that it won't be easy to get it to work as well as or better than the current 7N design.

If an improvement in performance/TDP exists but is small, and the new chip is the same manufacturing cost per unit or lower, they could just add it to the existing range for easier marketing. 5900XT, for example. If performance is roughly the same and manufacturing cost is lower they could even keep the naming - consumer gets what they expect, AMD gets more profit. If the improvement in both is tiny then it wouldn't be worth the marketing effort (and they can also put off a bit longer deciding how to handle selling 6900x cpu and 6900xt gpu at the same time).

6 : Anonymous2021/04/28 14:33 ID: gw6cj9t

Ahh...a rumor about a rumor. Gotta love these copypastas.

7 : Anonymous2021/04/28 10:11 ID: gw5mdn6

Would be a shame, my plan was to get a 5900XT and a X570S board to be able to skip the next 2-3 years until DDR5 support ist mature enough and a range of sticks is available...

ID: gw5yzmu

They still might do a XT sku. For zen2 XT it was same process just higher bin. They could probably do that with zen3 as well. Maybe finally a 5gig zen3 XT processor might be coming if they canceled the zen3+ chips

ID: gw7o3un

Thing is Zen3 is also the same process as Zen2 and Zen2 XT, binning can only go so far...

Although Mark Papermaster talked about 5GHz in a press meeting iirc, saying that they could've made a 5950X with 5GHz boost but the binning would've been way too extreme to be profitable compared to 4.9GHz.

ID: gw8cy4q

Exactly what someone who has had good info posted on twitter.....Warhol cancelled, refresh not cancelled

ID: gw5u5ns

Nobody would be able to buy them anyway outside of scalpers

ID: gw5w2oz

Several shops here in Germany have the 5900X in stock, and while it is a bit over MSRP, the price seems okish considering the global situation right now...

8 : Anonymous2021/04/28 15:47 ID: gw6mtbq

Can someone tell me when and where AMD ever mentioned Warhol? All I've seen and referenced myself are rumors. What's the difference between the rumor being false and a yet to be made public release being canceled?

ID: gw8d41d

A few folks posted pictures of AMD CPU/APU roadmap that listed code name, process node and core.

9 : Anonymous2021/04/28 14:48 ID: gw6ehss

The world is in such a bizarre place right now. Covid, drought, suez canal, resulting in shortages of everything. Large unemployments and an extreme stock/crypto market rise on top of that. I don't know what the world will be in five years, but the extreme uncertainties we live with now, will have significant impact on life one way or the other in a few years.

ID: gw7pfc2

Don't know why your were downvoted for being right. Maybe the Reddit kiddos don't like hearing truth.

But, I think we'll bounce back pretty quick. Maybe even for the better. A lot of folks around the world learned what's important this last dreadful year...

10 : Anonymous2021/04/28 18:08 ID: gw77fyu

I would rather they use their limited resources to actually bring 5*00G to retail availability. No need for Zen3+ right now given the competition and how well Zen 3 is selling.

11 : Anonymous2021/04/28 10:31 ID: gw5nqbs

Might as well start developing for AM5 socket

12 : Anonymous2021/04/28 10:07 ID: gw5m3km

I always knew AMD shouldnt have gone fabless. Should have worked out something than selling a major asset.

ID: gw5ouw7

AMD going fabless saved the company from bankruptcy. Had they kept Glofo on the books during their dark days of 2011-2015, they would most certainly not exist in the same way they do today.

ID: gw5n9qk

Yeah look how badly it turned out for them...

ID: gw5p729

Speak the same words in a few months or next year.

ID: gw5owrx

If AMD didn't go fabless then it's likely that Bulldozer would bankrupt them if they also had to pay for the fabs at the time.

Plus you're assuming that somehow GF would be able to keep up with TSMC under AMD's management.

13 : Anonymous2021/04/28 12:02 ID: gw5v14w

N6 would mean smaller chips so in turn better supply though, right? Or am I overlooking anything? Since it was supposed to be for AM4, I guess they could phase out Vermeer.

ID: gw6jpd7

Potentially 5-15% due to density increase + whatever percent using EUV more speeds up the fab...

ID: gw6pkzs

It's N6 DUV, not EUV.

14 : Anonymous2021/04/28 19:36 ID: gw7juci

It makes sense. The Zen 3+ was probably a hedge against a potentially strong move by intel. That hasn't happened at all. Intel now attacking on the low end, it makes sense to focus on the next big architecture as well as finetuning the existing process.

15 : Anonymous2021/04/28 12:56 ID: gw60jj5

and this is when having your own fab pays dividends.

ID: gw6132c

AMD would probably be bankrupt had they not sold their fabs.

Also GloFo is nowhere near able to produce 7nm chips...

ID: gw7yv0c

Yeah your own fabs being stuck on 14nm+++++++ with billions poured into R&D


Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x